The Copa America group stage is already halfway over, but only Colombia have secured their spot in the quarter-finals after their victory over Qatar.
The other seven slots are still very much up for grabs, and there are several different permutations that could possibly play out in the remaining group games.
Even Argentina, who have claimed just one point from two matches, still have hope of making it to the last eight and winning the tournament as the Copa America 2019 odds had them favoured to do.
As the group stage heads into the final round of games, let’s take a look at all the different potential scenarios and see what teams must do to make it to the knockout stage.
Group A
Brazil and Peru are currently atop Group A with four points apiece and will meet in the final group game. Meanwhile, Venezuela are third on two points while Bolivia are dead-last with no points.
The formula is simple for both Brazil and Peru: whoever wins in their match-up tops the group. In the event of a draw, Brazil will win the group due to a superior goal difference (+3 to +2).
And if one team loses, there’s still a good chance they still finish as one of the top-two third-placed teams with four points already in the bag.
Meanwhile, Venezuela — the current top third-placed team — would finish second if they beat Bolivia and either Peru or Brazil win. And if they beat Bolivia and Brazil and Peru draw, all three teams would be tied with five points.
In that three-way tie scenario, Venezuela could potentially top the group if they win by four goals and overtake Brazil’s +3 goal difference. But if they win by a single goal, they would stay in third and would likely go through as the top-ranked third-placed team with five points.
As for Bolivia, their only chance of qualifying is by beating Venezuela and finishing as one of the top-two third-placed teams.
But while they have a winning record all-time against Venezuela, they’ve won just three of their last 10 meetings, with two draws and five defeats.
Group B
Colombia are safely through to the quarter-finals and are also assured of top spot in Group B after two wins and six points. Paraguay are currently second with two points after two draws. Meanwhile, Qatar and Argentina both have one point, with Qatar in third due to a better goal difference (-1 to -2).
Paraguay will guarantee themselves a spot in the knockout stage alongside Colombia if they beat the leaders in their final group match. They also go through if they draw and Qatar and Argentina draw.
Paraguay can still finish second even if they lose to Colombia. Qatar and Argentina would have to draw, and Paraguay would need to lose by just one goal (to be equal in goal difference with Qatar) and finish with more goals than Qatar. They are currently ahead in that department, three goals to two.
But if they lose by more than one goal, Qatar would move to second. And if they lose by more than two goals, they would fall even further to fourth.
As for Argentina, they must beat Qatar to stand a decent chance of going through. They will finish second if they win and Paraguay lose. And if both Paraguay and Argentina win, La Albiceleste will finish third with four points, which may be enough to secure qualification through the top-two third-place ranking.
Paraguay should fancy their chances of beating Colombia, who will likely sit their stars since they’re already qualified. That means third might be the more realistic outcome for the Argentines –if they win, that is.
Group C
All four teams in Group C have played just once as of this writing. Chile and Uruguay are both top after making a host of Copa America 2019 highlights in their 4-0 wins over Japan and Ecuador, respectively.
Uruguay face Japan and Chile take on Ecuador in the second round of matches. If Uruguay and Chile win again — as SBOBET odds have them favoured to do — that would see both teams through to the knockout stage. They would then fight it out for top spot when they meet in the final group game.
Meanwhile, Ecuador and Japan would face an uphill battle to qualify if they both lose again. The winner of their match-up in the final group game could go through via the third-place rankings, though, particularly if the three teams in Group B end up tied with two points each.
But if Ecuador and Japan draw and end up with one point apiece, then the third-placed teams from the other two groups would go through.
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