Ecuador vs Senegal
The winner takes it all in the Khalifa International Stadium on Tuesday afternoon.
Ecuador meet Senegal in Group A as the World Cup 2022 group stage reaches its conclusion and the winners of this contest are guaranteed a place in the last 16.
As the 44th-ranked nation in the world, few expected Ecuador to be in this position going into the final group game.
But, as they prepare to take on the country ranked 18th in the world, a win against the hosts and an impressive draw against group favourites, Holland, means a draw will be enough for the South Americans against the African champions.
Talking Points
Potential surprise package, Friday’s latest display of World Cup 2022 highlights summed up the way Ecuador’s belief has been strengthened in recent years, triggered by a major overhaul of backroom staff and the appointment of Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro, who helped turn them from doubters to believers.
They were unlucky not to defeat the Dutch on that occasion and have been spearheaded by Enner Valencia who has registered three goals so far.
He has been a threat during the first two matches, until he was carried off in the closing stages against Holland with a knock his manager hopes will not keep him out of the final group game.
Local media reports have suggested Valencia will be fit to play, and with so much on the line, don’t be surprised if the veteran striker is involved.
Should he score Ecuador’s first goal in the match, the former West Ham and Everton man will actually equal Oleg Salenko’s record for Russia in 1994 by scoring his nation’s last seven at the World Cup.
His six goals in a row have come from just nine shots on target, converting 67% of those, so it seems he will have a huge part to play if Ecuador are to advance beyond the group stage for the first time since 2006.
If Valencia is not available, Ecuador have a decision to make in terms of who will come in to aid their endeavours offensively. That could mean a choice between Brighton & Hove Albion forward Jeremy Sarmiento or Imbabura man Kevin Rodriguez to fill the void.
For Senegal, who were seven minutes away from drawing against Holland before two defensive errors, only a win will be enough to progress to the knockout stage for the first time since reaching the quarter-finals in 2002.
That was their first World Cup and they will have to beat South American opposition at the World Cup for the first time having lost on two such previous occasions (Uruguay in 2002, Colombia in 2014).
Bolstered by the return of defender Abdou Diallo, Senegal were far too strong for now-eliminated hosts Qatar last time out.
That should be no surprise given their starting XI in that match featured 10 players from Europe’s top-five leagues, the exception being Ismaila Sarr of Watford who has pedigree in the Premier League.
In a clinical display, the Lions of Teranga dispatched their Qatari opponents, as strikes from Boulaye Dia, Famara Diedhiou and Bamba Dieng sealed all three points with a 3-1 success.
On paper, Senegal should have too much for Ecuador, but momentum goes a long way in football and the momentum may just be with Alfaro’s charges right now.
History
May 2002 is the only time these nations have met and that was a friendly on the eve of the World Cup in South Korea and Japan.
Played in Tokyo, a 68th-minute goal earned Senegal, for whom their current manager Aliou Cisse played, a 1-0 win.
Betting Tip
The SBOTOP World Cup 2022 betting odds actually edge towards Ecuador.
The 1X2 Draw, which will be enough for them, is priced @ 3.15 with an Ecuador 1X2 victory @ 2.42 and Senegal 1X2 @ 2.97.
Asian Handicap odds are also very close with Ecuador available -0.25 @ 2.11 and -0.50 @ 2.42 with Senegal on offer 0.00 @ 2.25 and -0.25 @ 2.78.
If Senegal are to win 1-0, just as they did in their only other meeting with Ecuador 20 years ago, then Correct Score odds are on offer @ 7.80.
This should be a close encounter but I do not think it will be defensively tight so I’m not plumping for Total Goal 0-1 @ 2.59 or Under 1.75 @ 2.51.
Instead, I do expect a fair few goals and, while I have considered Total Goal 2-3 @ 1.92 and 4-6 @ 4.80, my three-star bet is for there to be over 2.50 goals @ 2.42.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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