La Liga: Barcelona’s Hopes are Valencia’s Fears

Barcelona vs Valencia

League leaders Barcelona suffered only their second defeat of the campaign last week, a shock reversal away to relegation threatened Almeria, and their next opponents can expect a backlash.

Those opponents are another team in the relegation mix but Valencia is a club which doesn’t expect to drop through the trapdoor having spent 86 seasons in the top flight with four visits to the Segunda Division, and six La Liga titles, the most recent in 2004. So La Liga: Barcelona vs Valencia is a huge game for both proud clubs, one hoping to maintain or extend their seven point lead at the summit, the other fearing that they might struggle to climb out of the drop zone.  

The Barcelona vs Valencia betting odds have this one nailed as a home win and I can’t disagree.

Talking Points

Barca must show their title credentials  

After a disaster in Almeria, Barcelona are aiming to be masters in March and the manager will need to draw on all his resources as the club’s injury problems show no sign of slowing down. A hamstring injury to young midfield maestro Pedri has been a real blow to the club, with Barca’s win rate dropping from 90 per cent to 57 per cent when the 20 year old is out of action.

Ousmane Dembele has also been sidelined and that has left Robert Lewandowski without his main source of supply, but then Lewi himself picked up a thigh injury during the loss to Almeria and he looks likely to be out for a couple of weeks, though a quicker return has not been ruled out. If he doesn’t make it then Ansu Fati is fit again and he can step in alongside Ferran Torres, with Raphinha the only other forward who is 100 per cent fit.

In defence, Andreas Christensen has an ankle injury and he has been part of a superb defence which has conceded just eight goals in the last 23 games and kept 17 clean sheets in the league. The return to fitness of Ronald Araujo is a major boost and he can partner Jules Kounde at the heart of defence, or switch to right back if Xavi chooses to play Eric Garcia.

While the Blaugrana are depleted they still have plenty of talent to call upon and, if they can get through this sticky period without opening the door to the chasing Real Madrid, they have a great chance of winning the league.

And with a captain with the stature of midfield general Sergio Busquets, there is always a chance. With eight La Liga titles and three Champions League medals Busquets knows how to win.         

Baraja’s returns to save Valencia

When Gennaro Gattuso was sacked as Valencia head coach Los Ches were in a precarious 14^th position and while the club worked on a replacement they dropped to 18^th where they currently sit. Ex-playing legend Ruben Baraja took over at the Mestalla on the 14^th February and the passionate (and demanding) Valencia fans hope he will be as successful as a manager for the club as he was a midfielder when he won two league titles in the early 2000s.   

He started with a 1-0 loss away to Getafe and los Ches weren’t expected to emerge from their clash with Real Sociedad with much; but they nabbed a 1-0 win thanks to an own goal courtesy of Igor Zubeldia. While La Real had the lion’s share of possession Valencia had as many chances to score and were worth their win.

Skippered by Brazilian centre back Gabriel Paulista this is team with a balance of youth and experience. They are currently relying on 23 year old striker Hugo Duro and Justin Kluivert, on loan from Roma, for goals, but can call on veteran striker Edinson Cavani. And 23 year old defensive midfielder Hugo Guillamon is a class act, already picking up three international caps for Spain in a position dominated for many years by Busquets, and now Manchester City star Rodri is a Roja regular in that space.  

Guillamon will relish the chance to come up against the Barca skipper.  

History

With 36 wins to 14, the Blaugrana have had much the better of the head to head Barcelona vs Valencia results and they have won each of the last four encounters, including a 1-0 win at the Mestalla in October.

Recent form for Barca has been patchy, for the first time this season, with three wins a draw and two defeats in the last six while Valencia have the one victory and five consecutive defeats.  

Barca’s home record is nine wins and two draws this season and they have not lost at home to Valencia in their last seven meetings. I strongly suspect that is not a run which is about to end.  

Betting Tip

The Blaugrana are as short as 1.45 with SBOTOP to win this game, with Valencia at 5.61 and the draw at 3.88. Barcelona have a Copa del Rey match against Real Madrid on Thursday and it will be fascinating to see how they react following last week’s debacle. But then back in La Liga, against another team struggling to climb the table, I don’t expect Xavi’s men to show any mercy.

 

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