Champions League: Inter Out to Seal Semis Spot at San Siro

Inter Milan vs Benfica

Inter Milan are 90 minutes away from reaching the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since they won the competition in 2010.

The Nerazzurri have a 2-0 advantage to protect as they face Benfica in their quarter-final second leg at the San Siro.

The Eagles lost their unbeaten record in this season’s competition after falling in the first leg and are now on a three-match losing skid. Can they defy the Champions League 2023 odds and make a dramatic comeback in Milan?

Talking Points

Inter seemingly all-in on Champions League

Inter Milan are do not seem to be all that interested in the race for the top four in Serie A. The Nerazzurri suffered a shock 1-0 home defeat to Monza over the weekend, their fourth defeat in their last five league games as they remain two points behind rivals AC Milan in fourth.

Perhaps Inter were guilty looking ahead to their crucial Champions League tie. Although, Simone Inzaghi fielded a fairly strong side against Monza, with Lautaro Martinez and Marcelo Brozovic the most notable players rested. They rained down 25 shots on Monza’s goal – including six from Lautaro in the space of just 20 minutes – but they simply lacked the cutting edge in front of goal.

Inter’s sudden inability to score at the San Siro is becoming a major concern. They have lost each of their last three home league games, failing to score in all three. Inter don’t necessarily need to score at the San Siro to progress to the semi-finals, though, as they have a two-goal lead to protect from the first leg.

However, defending that lead could prove more challenging amid some injury concerns. They will still be without centre-back Milan Skriniar, who has missed the last month with a back injury. Meanwhile, Stefan de Vrij suffered an ankle injury against Monza, leaving his availability for the second leg in doubt.

Although, neither started the first leg in Lisbon, and the back three of Matteo Darmian, Francesco Acerbi, and Alessandro Bastoni still kept a clean sheet.

Benfica need to break out of losing skid

Benfica have picked a bad time to go on their worst run of the season. Roger Schmidt’s side has lost each of their last three games, with their first-leg loss to Inter sandwiched in between back-to-back league defeats, which have seen their lead atop Liga NOS sliced to four points.

Veteran defender Nicolas Otamendi was the culprit in their 1-0 weekend defeat to Chaves as his costly error led to Chaves’ winning goal in stoppage time.

Otamendi missed the first leg against Inter due to suspension, but despite his error, he should be set to start in the second leg. Portuguese forward Goncalo Guedes also made his return after a recent injury layoff.

However, regular right-back Alexander Bah and Julian Draxler are still expected to miss the second leg due to injury.

Benfica’s usually consistent attack is also suddenly sputtering as they’ve failed to score in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

The Eagles will need to produce some Champions League 2023 highlights away from home to stand any chance of progressing. Prior to their late defeat to Chaves, Benfica had won eight of their previous nine away games, conceding just one goal during that span.

History

With their 2-0 win in the first leg, Inter have improved to four games unbeaten against Benfica, with three wins and a draw.

That’s the ninth time Inter have won a two-legged European Cup tie by two or more goals, and they have not been eliminated when they’ve been in such a position.

Betting Tip

SBOTOP odds have Inter Milan installed as 2.18 favourites to beat Benfica once again. The Portuguese giants are priced at 2.92 to win the second leg, while a draw is 3.35.

It has been an ongoing trend that Inter home games just haven’t been all that high-scoring since the start of the new year. In the 12 games they’ve played at San Siro in 2023, there have been three or more goals scored just twice.

And I expect this match to be another low-scoring affair. With Inter having the luxury of focusing on defence to protect their two-goal lead coupled, they should be able to capably stifle a Benfica side that is suddenly struggling in front of goal.

 

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