Premier League: Villa is Another Big Test for the Gunners

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Title hopefuls Arsenal host Aston Villa on Sunday in the first of a huge seven fixtures for the Gunners, and this could also be a pivotal moment for the Villains. 

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal went top of the Premier League last week thanks to a 3-0 win away to Brighton and Hove Albion, and they played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in the Champions League quarterfinal on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Unai Emery’s Villa drew 3-3 at home to Brentford, and they have a Europa League meeting with Ligue 1 side Lille on Thursday night. 

This is the start of a run of big games for Arteta in a three-way battle for domestic supremacy, and, against an ambitious side with bags of talent, it will be a big test. 

Talking Points

Arsenal’s defence is fallible after all

When I wrote the SBOTOP analysis of the title run-in, looking at the top three sides, it became pretty clear that the Gunners have the toughest set of fixtures.

But they start in top position with their destiny in their own hands, and Arteta’s team is certainly a different prospect from Arsenal sides of recent years.

Notably, they are harder to beat, and they have a top-class defence, with Gabriel partnering William Saliba at centre back and Declan Rice patrolling the midfield in front.

Arsenal have the best goal difference and have conceded the fewest goals, at 24, six fewer than second-placed Liverpool and seven fewer than reigning champions Manchester City.

They went into the clash with Bayern on the back of four consecutive clean sheets, including a highly impressive 0-0 draw away to the Sky Blues, but, against the Bavarians, the Gunners were uncharacteristically sloppy.

Bayern’s first goal resulted from a misplaced pass by Gabriel, intercepted by Leroy Sane, and fed to Leon Goretzka, who put in Serge Gnabry for the opener.

The Germans’ second goal, a penalty dispatched by Harry Kane, was given after Sane ghosted past Jorginho and Gabriel before being brought down by Saliba. 

While Arsenal’s back line has had a reality check, the forwards were as strong as ever.

Attacking midfielder Bukayo Saka has been in phenomenal form this season, with 14 goals and eight assists in the Premier League, and he scored Arsenal’s opener against Bayern Munich on Tuesday, while Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard combined for the second.

But Arsenal’s current back line needs to get back to its excellent best.

The Premier League 2024 betting odds have fluctuated in recent weeks, and while the Gunners are currently top, Manchester City are the favourites to win the title, and Arteta’s team can’t afford to fall at the first hurdle. 

Luiz is a big miss for Villa

After performing at a consistently high level for two thirds of the campaign, the Villains dropped to fifth in the league table after a patchy run of Premier League 2024 results, with heavy losses to Manchester City and Spurs and draws with Brentford and West Ham in recent weeks.

Pau Torres has certainly strengthened the Villains’ defence, but Emery’s policy has been for his team to attack with fluidity and simply score more than their opponents.

Ollie Watkins, with 18 goals and ten assists, has been even more productive than Arsenal’s Saka, and he is the joint top assist maker in the league, alongside Newcastle United’s Kieran Trippier and Brighton’s Pascal Gross.

He will lead the line on Sunday, but Watkins will be without one of his key attacking partners as Douglas Luiz will be suspended after receiving his tenth yellow card of the campaign against the Bees.

The Brazilian playmaker will miss two games at a bad time for the Villains; he has been in superb form, scoring nine goals and making five assists.

He has been linked with both Barcelona and Arsenal, but Luiz insists he is happy at Villa Park and is a candidate for the club’s player of the season. Emery has some fine players ready to step in, and either Moussa Diaby or Nicolo Zaniolo can deputise, but Luiz will be a big miss. 

History

With 33 wins in the last 57 encounters between these two, the Gunners have certainly bossed this relationship, but the Villains did well to win the return fixture 1-0, as John McGinn scored the only goal of the game to take Emery’s team up to third, while Arsenal were a point ahead in second. 

In terms of recent form, it’s Arsenal in the box seat with four victories and two draws from the last six, while Aston Villa have rather hit the skids, winning two, drawing two, and losing two, and the Gunners have been brilliant at home this season with 12 wins, two draws, and one loss. 

Betting Tip

Arsenal are at very short odds of 1.26 to win this game, and that’s some price against a team that has been in the top four for most of the campaign. Villa can be backed at 8.00 and the draw is at 5.40, but I think, with two extra days to prepare, Arsenal can see this game through, and, for an alternative bet, a 2-0 home win is available at odds of 7.00.

 

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