UEFA Nations League: Weakened Belgium Seek Salvation in Stadio Olimpico

Italy vs Belgium

Of all the UEFA Nations League games this week, this has the most potential for UEFA Nations League 2024 highlights.

Two big nations going head-to-head in the magnificent Stadio Olimpico.

Both nations are arguably at a transition period but, right now, the outlook for one seems brighter than the other.

 

Talking Points

It’s a new chapter in Belgian football, but so far it hasn’t gone too well.

International football’s Red Devils knew the era of their supposed “Golden Generation” was over, long before Domenico Tedesco took 25 players to Germany this summer, despite UEFA permitting 26, with squad harmony suggested as the decisive reason.

But a run of just one win from four games, including a last-16 exit to France, was underwhelming.

And while they tasted victory in their UEFA Nations League opener at home to Israel last month, it was quickly followed by a 2-0 reverse in France.

All this combined, means Belgium have slipped from the third best team in the world in the FIFA rankings to sixth.

By contrast, Italy have bounced back from their miserable defence of their European crown (they went out to Switzerland with a whimper at the last 16 stage) and victory in France was followed by a win in Israel which has allowed them to take early charge of a tough looking Nations League group.

Indeed, goalkeeping legend Gianluigi Buffon believes the disappointment of that early Euro 2024 exit has helped the Italy players grow on and off the pitch, although he acknowledges they have now set themselves a higher benchmark.

Manager Luciano Spalletti yesterday gave his first press conference of October’s training camp, explaining why he gave call-ups to Daniel Maldini and Niccolo Pisilli, while also explaining Federico Chiesa’s absence and the choice to select Matteo Gabbia.

The Azzurri players have a full training session today (Tuesday), and it will be interesting to see if, come Thursday, Spalletti hands starting berths to any of the six players he has handed maiden international call-ups – Michele Di Gregorio, Caleb Okoli, Gabbia, Pisilli, Maldini, and Lorenzo Lucca.

Many eyes will be on Atalanta heavy-hitter Mateo Retegui, who bagged his first Serie A hat-trick at the weekend to become the league’s joint-top goalscorer with seven goals.

Oh how Belgium could do with such an attacking player in form because their major issue in recent games has been a lack of attacking creativity.

They have drawn a blank in three of their last four internationals, and Tedesco is currently without his main creator Kevin De Bruyne and top scorer Romelu Lukaku.

Napoli winger Cyril Ngonge could make his first international cap, and expect Arsenal’s Leandro Trossard to start in attack.

Of those in this squad, the 29-year-old forward is Belgium’s joint-top scorer alongside Aston Villa midfielder Youri Tielemans.

 

History

This is a fixture the Azzurri have tended to dominate, winning 16 of their 24 meetings with a further four draws.

In fact, the Italians won the first six encounters in a row, beginning with a 1-0 home friendly success in May 1913 when Guido Ara scored the only goal.

Indeed, only one of Belgium’s four victories against Italy has been in a competitive fixture, a World Cup qualifier in 1972 in Anderlecht when Wilfried Van More and Paul Van Himst were on target in a 2-1 victory.

It’s nine years since Belgium beat Italy, a 2015 friendly, and Italy have won all three contests since.

Goals from Emanuele Giaccherini and Graziano Pelle settled a Euro 2016 group game in their favour.

Italy also enjoyed victory at Euro 2020 (played a year later) at the quarter-final stage when a Lukaku penalty wasn’t enough to overturn first half goals from Nicolò Barella and Lorenzo Insigne.

Italy went onto be crowned champions of Europe.

Then just three months later, in October 2021, Italy proved a bogey side for Belgium once more as Barella and a Domenico Berardi penalty proved decisive to settle the UEFA Nations League third place play-off, again by the same 2-1 scoreline.

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP UEFA Nations League 2024 betting odds firmly back Italy so how about a home victory, either 1X2 @ 1.93 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.19.

Belgium are priced 1X2 @ 3.49 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.21.

The draw is on offer @ 3.16 which is an attractive bet, as are various goal options such as Total Goals 0-1 @ 3.02, 2-3 @ 1.98, 4-6 @ 3.45 and Over 2.75 @ 2.20.

In fact, it is the latter that I’m plumping for as my recommended bet.

   

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