Mexico vs England
The World Cup 2026 moves to another level this weekend as the Round of 16 kicks off. And on Sunday evening at the Azteca Stadium, hosts Mexico take on eternal hopefuls England, and that, my friends, will be a cracker.
Javier Aguirre’s Mexico have beaten all comers so far, seeing off Ecuador in the Round of 32 to make it four wins from four. Meanwhile, Thomas Tuchel’s England have won three and drawn one, coming from behind with two goals from Harry Kane to beat DR Congo last time out.
The Three Lions have had heat and humidity training, but altitude is harder to prepare for, and that gives Mexico a key advantage against a team with more household names. So, this is a tough game to call.
The latest World Cup 2026 betting odds make England the fourth favourites to lift the trophy and Mexico as the eighth favourites. But on Sunday, something is going to give, and either El Tri or the Three Lions will be packing their bags.
Talking Points
El Tri’s biggest test
Mexico couldn’t have done any better over their first four matches, beating South Africa, South Korea, the Czech Republic, and Ecuador. These are four tough opponents, but none higher than Ecuador, 24th in the FIFA World Rankings, and now they face one of the world’s heavyweights, England, at fourth. Mexico passed their test against Ecuador impressively, as the underrated Julian Quinones scored his third goal of the campaign, while veteran striker Raul Jimenez was on the mark again.
The kick-off was delayed by an hour due to thunderstorms, but when the action began, El Tri came out of the blocks like lightning and were 2-0 up within half an hour before closing the game out against the conquerors of Germany. Quinones’ strike was a belter fired into the top corner, and he turned provider to tee up Jimenez, who gleefully fired home.
With captain Cesar Montes back at the heart of defence following his red card in the chaotic opener against South Africa, El Tri are at full strength, and they will test Tuchel’s England to the full.
England must improve
It’s all very well to cry “Harry and England” every time you’re in trouble, but the Three Lions cannot rely on their talisman alone if they are to go deep into this competition.
His two goals against DR Congo were superb, showcasing the best of Kane’s skills. The first was a trademark header to convert a brilliant cross from substitute Anthony Gordon, and the second was sensational. With the DR Congo defence typically tight, the England captain managed to find an inch of space some 15 yards out and smashed a howitzer high into the roof of the goal. Look at the World Cup 2026 highlights, as Kane’s shot reached 96 mph by the time it hit the net.
DR Congo are no mugs of course. They drew 1-1 with Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal at the group stage, and with players such as Yoanne Wissa in their side, they are a dangerous customer. But the striking thing about Congo is how solid their defence is, featuring Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Axel Tuanzebe, both relegated with West Ham United and Burnley last season.
In contrast, England’s defence has been anything other than solid. Conceding two goals against Croatia and also exposed by Ghana, the England back four needs tightening up, and it looked better when Declan Rice moved into right-back to replace Djed Spence.
And up front, though the DR Congo team had been worn down to some degree, the introduction of Gordon and Bukayo Saka on the flanks made all the difference. Gordon teed up both Kane’s goals, and I expect them to start in place of Noni Madueke and Marcus Rashford on Sunday.
Tuchel has plenty of talent at his disposal. But with Reece James injured, he does have an issue at right-back, and he might even start with Rice there against El Tri.
History
Mexico are trying to equal or better their quarter-final appearances from 1970 and 1986, while England are hoping to end 60 years of hurt with a first World Cup triumph since their 1966 final win over Germany.
These are two teams in form, with Mexico winning their last six games, while England have won five and drawn one. But they have only met twice before. The Three Lions won both, the last time a friendly in 2010, and the first at the 1966 World Cup, with both matches in England.
Betting Tip
This game is on a knife-edge with England the marginal favourites at SBOTOP odds of 2.45, and Mexico at 2.89, and I can make a case for both teams.
At 2,200 metres altitude, this will be some test of the Three Lions’ lung capacity, and a passionate home crowd will make things even tougher for Tuchel’s men. But they have Kane, and a more talented and creative group which will need to be at, or near, it’s best to beat El Tri. The most likely outcome after 90 minutes is a 1-1 draw at odds of 6.00, so I think this one will go all the way.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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