Bundesliga: Will Bayern Have a Productive Trip to Mainz This Time?

Mainz vs Bayern Munich

Following the international break, Bayern Munich are scheduled to visit Mainz at MEWA Arena on Saturday as they continue their Bundesliga title defence.

The Bavarian juggernauts are currently in third place in the standings, with Bayer Leverkusen and surprise package VfB Stuttgart above them at first and second.

There’s a sense of urgency for Thomas Tuchel and co. to pick up more positive Bundesliga 2023 results in the form of wins and not anything else since the title race is becoming tighter than usual. So a match against Mainz, who are currently in the relegation scrap, may be what the doctor ordered for Bayern Munich.

However, the defending German top-flight champions haven’t won in Mainz in a while, a troubling trend that must end sooner rather than later.

Talking Points

Neuer might make his return soon

Manuel Neuer hasn’t kicked a football since Germany’s 4-2 win against Costa Rica at the 2022 World Cup group stage. The veteran goalkeeper broke his leg on a holiday ski trip, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2022-23 season.

10 months later, the 37-year-old is expected to make his return as early as this weekend, and this is great news for Bayern Munich because it gives them another reliable veteran presence.

However, don’t expect Neuer to start right away against Mainz because the team isn’t rushing him back, so Sven Ulreich should continue to man the sticks, at least in the meantime.

With Ulreich as their starting goalkeeper, Bayern Munich’s defence is holding down well because they’ve only conceded six goals so far.

It also helps that they have a robust backline covering Ulreich, with Kim Min-Jae leading the way. The former Napoli star is expected to team up with either Matthijs de Ligt or Dayot Upamecano at centre-half this Saturday at Mainz.

More team news for both Bayern Munich and Mainz

Now that we’re on the subject of team news, Bayern Munich and Mainz will have to dig deep into their depth charts, with the former having the edge in that regard.

For Bayern Munich, Raphael Guerreiro (thigh) and Serge Gnabry (arm) are unlikely to play, while team captain Joshua Kimmich is fighting against time to make it to the starting XI after suffering an illness while on international duty.

With Gnabry sidelined, Harry Kane is going to be supported by Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman, with the latter being a massive thorn in Mainz’s side.

Noussair Mazraoui, who was suspended internally for a social media post he made on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, is another significant absentee for Bayern Munich.

Mainz’s Anwar El Ghazi will also face the same consequence for a similar public post to Mazraoui’s.

In addition to the former Aston Villa forward, the 05ers will also miss the services of Jonathan Burkardt, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Karim Onisiwo, and Maxim Leitsch due to injuries.

History

Mainz have won their last three Bundesliga home games against Bayern Munich. That is more wins than in their first 14 league home matches against the Bavarians combined (W2).

The last club to have that many Bundesliga home wins in a row against Bayern Munich was Schalke from 2000 to 2005 (W5).

With only two points in the first seven matches, Mainz are having their second-worst start to a Bundesliga campaign. The last time the 05ers went winless after the first seven games was back in 2020-21, when they only had one point, and they ended their drought with a 3-1 win against SC Freiburg on the eighth matchday.

Bayern Munich are actually undefeated in their first seven league games of a Bundesliga campaign for the first time in seven years (W5, D2) when they were still coached by Carlo Ancelotti. Back then, their first loss came on the 11^th matchday, a 1-0 result against Borussia Dortmund.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Bundesliga 2023 odds favour Bayern Munich’s chances to put an end to their road woes in Mainz. The visitors are at 1.25 odds to win, while the hosts are massive underdogs at 8.00, and a draw is priced at 5.60 in the 1X2 market.

With Mainz struggling to find form, especially on the defencive end, it’s hard to see them prevent Bayern Munich from scoring a bunch of goals in this contest and taking all three points.

And with that said, other than the recommended bet above, you may want to think about going for Total Goals 4-6 at 1.95 or Over 4.00 at 2.19 as alternatives, while Total Goals 2-3 at 2.43 offers better value.

 

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