Champions League: Bayern vs Lazio…A Done Deal?

Bayern Munich vs Lazio

When FC Bayern welcome Lazio for their Champions League Round of 16 second leg tie on Wednesday we can guess, with some confidence, which team will be heading to the quarter-finals.

A 4-1 win in Rome has put the Bundesliga giants in complete control and while I accept heroic comebacks do happen, this is Bayern Munich we are talking about! Lazio haven’t been in the best of form recently, while Hansi Flick’s team is clicking through the gears in pursuit of yet more domestic and European glory.

Can we make a case for an Italian smash and grab? Well, let’s take a look at the recent activity in both camps and see whether we can unearth something.

Talking Points

Bayern looking for a repeat of 2020

The reigning champions are right up there among the favourites for the European flagship tournament and they are certainly in good shape to repeat their triumph of 23^rd August 2020, when they saw off the challenge of Paris Saint-Germain thanks to a Kingsley Coman strike midway through the second half.

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Premier League

According to the latest Champions League 2021 betting odds there are four teams in with a good chance of the title: Manchester City, Bayern, PSG and Liverpool, in that order. We shouldn’t rule out the likes of Real Madrid and Chelsea who could have plenty to say in the latter stages, but Manchester City and Bayern look like the two teams to beat. The Bavarians had a good weekend in the Bundesliga, stretching their lead at the top of the table to four points thanks to a 3-1 victory away to Werder Bremen, while rivals Red Bull Leipzig were held to a draw at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.

Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala both scored in the victory in Rome and will hope to feature again, having been used from the bench against Bremen. But one man who is sure to start is Robert Lewandowski, who became the joint second-highest scorer in Bundesliga history on Saturday, moving alongside Schalke legend Klaus Fischer on 268 league goals.

He’s second favourite, behind Dortmund’s Erling Braut Haaland, to win the Champions League Golden Boot and he’s sure to be on the hunt for goals against Lazio.

Lazio battling to stay in contention at home

While Bayern’s domestic form is looking rather ominous for their rivals, I Biancoceleste have endured a testing time recently. A clash against Juventus which ended in a 3-1 defeat made it three losses on the bounce for Simone Inzaghi’s side. But they ended that disappointing run with a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Crotone on Friday night.

Top scorer Ciro Immobile has five goals in the competition to add to his 14 in Serie A and he was substituted midway through the second half of the Crotone clash, as was Argentine midfielder Joaquin Correa, who has three goals and two assists in the Champions League.

Champions League: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic made it to the scoresheet of Lazio's 3-2 Serie A win vs Crotone — Sergej Milinkovic-Savic in action during Lazio’s Serie A match against Inter Milan

It will be interesting to see how Inzaghi plays his cards. With work to do to stay in the hunt for a top-four place in Serie A I doubt he’ll want to risk his prize assets and might well make early substitutions if things aren’t going well. That could apply also to Serbian midfield ace Sergej-Milinkovic-Savic who was on target in Fridays’ victory and is a vital component in Lazio’s side, but with Manuel Lazzari and Luiz Felipe injured Inzaghi’s options are limited.

History

This is only the second meeting between these two teams, and Bayern’s 4-1 win in the opener will still be etched in the memory of Lazio fans. Still only 17 at the time, Musiala became the youngest English player to score in the Champions League, while Lewandowski was also on target in the rout.

Bayern are very hard to beat in Munich, undefeated in 30 games at home, and they have won four on the bounce in all competitions.

Lazio are in mixed form, with two wins and four defeats from the last six games, and this is not a match their passionate supporters will be looking forward to.

Betting Tip

	Bayern Munich vs Lazio	First Half 1X2 Bayern Munich @ 1.82
	March 18, 04:00 (GMT+8)

Here at SBOTOP we’re backing the Bavarians to win this second leg at a canter, at odds of 1.31, while the draw is at 5.22 and Lazio are at 5.99.

The most likely score-line is 2-0 at odds of 7.33, though I suspect it could be more and I’m backing Bayern to put the second leg to bed by the break.

We’ll be back with the Champions League 2021 updates tomorrow when Manchester City play Gladbach, and then again in Munich to see how this one plays out.