Champions League: Can Lisbon Lightning Strike Twice?

Benfica vs Real Madrid

So, can lightning strike twice or was last month’s dramatic finale in Lisbon just a flash in the pan?

Whatever happens over the next four months, it’s unlikely we will see Champions League 2026 highlights quite like those we witnessed at the conclusion of the group stage contest between Benfica and Real Madrid a few weeks ago.

Just to cast your mind back.

Ninety eight minutes were on the clock when the hosts’ goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin met a Fredrik Aursnes free-kick and headed home to spark wild scenes as Benfica saw off Real 4-2 to seal 24th place and the final qualifying spot.

All masterminded, of course, by one-time Madrid boss Jose Mourinho – well he loves the drama doesn’t he.

This, coupled with Sporting Lisbon’s victory over Atletico Madrid, meant Real were consigned to ninth place and a two-legged play-off.

Now the quirks of fate – or ridiculous Champions League format as this SBOTOP writer believes – has led to the two teams being pitted against each other again straight away.

 

Talking Points

Realistically, Benfica are paupers compared to the princes of Madrid and will not be expected to see off Real again, let alone knock them out of the competition over two legs.

Yet there again, Los Blancos do appear to have pressed the self destruct button at times in recent weeks.

Put it this way, I don’t believe they’d have found themselves in these play-offs had they not sacked Xabi Alonso and replaced him with a rookie in the shape of Alvaro Arbeloa.

On the pitch, after losing their discipline in the closing stages of the group game, it also means Raul Asencio and Rodrygo will be suspended in midweek.

Real have suffered a further blow with Rodrygo’s red card for dissent earning him a two-match ban which means he’ll miss both legs.

In the week in which the club found out that the ill-conceived 2021 proposal for a European Super League was officially dead in the water – Real, the last man standing in the shambles, reached an “agreement of principles” to settle its dispute with UEFA – at least the club returns to Portugal on a high.

Their 4-1 home win over Real Sociedad in La Liga on Saturday night moved them to the top of the table (at least until Monday night), thanks to goals from Gonzalo Garcia, Vinicius Jr (two penalties) and Federico Valverde.

It was also a match in which Kylian Mbappe could afford to be rested.

Twenty four hours earlier, Benfica had kept their outside Primeira Liga aspirations alive with a 2-1 win at Santa Clara.

Aside from their suspended duo, Jude Bellingham is a major absentee for the visitors due to a hamstring injury, while Eder Militao remains sidelined as he continues his recovery from a tendon issue.

For the hosts, Samuel Soares is a doubt with a muscle problem, as is the talented Aursnes.

Even if Benfica had a full strength side, though, it seems a big ask to expect them to defeat a European superpower twice in less than a month.

 

History

I talk of European superpowers but, before big money took over the game, Benfica were very much giants of the game.

In fact, let’s not forget, the second and most recent of Benfica’s European Cup triumphs, came in the 1962 final against the mighty Real.

It was a game which showcased two greats. Ferenc Puskas netted a hat-trick for Real who led 2-0 and 3-2 at one point before Benfica, inspired by two-goal Eusebio, who prevailed 5-3 in Amsterdam.

In the process, Puskas, by then 35, became the first player to score a hat-trick in multiple European Cup finals after scoring four goals in the 1960 final and the first to score a hat-trick in a European Cup final for the losing side.

Until last month, their only previous meetings came in the 1965 quarter-finals where, again, Benfica triumphed.

It was a night in which Eusebio again scored twice as the Portuguese side romped to a 5-1 victory in their home first leg.

Real won the second leg 2-1 but Benfica, again with Eusebio on target, won 6-3 on aggregate.

 

Betting Tip

Real Madrid have never won on Benfica soil but our Champions League 2026 betting odds expect that to change.

For the Spaniards are priced 1X2 @ 1.94 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.25.

Benfica, by contrast, are on offer 1X2 @ 3.33 and Asian Handicap + 0.50 @ 2.23.

Even a draw is not fancied, given it’s priced @ 3.50.

As much as any neutrals would love a contest like last month – correct score 4-2 will pay @ 105.00 incidentally – I can only envisage Real being more professional this time.

While Mourinho will make life difficult for his former club, he does not have the tools which Arbeloa has at his disposal and my *** tip is Half Time Full Time Away Away @ 2.78.

   

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