Champions League: Can Salzburg Spring the Biggest Surprise in Munich?

Bayern Munich vs Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg head to Munich to face FC Bayern in a Champions League second leg on Tuesday night, and Matthias Jaissle’s underdogs are still in the tie after holding the German champions to a 1-1 draw in the first leg.

But it is a huge challenge.

Julian Nagelsmann’s Bayern are third favourites to win the 2022 Champions League at odds of 5.50, while Salzburg are the third least likely team to lift the trophy at odds of 251.00. But the Austrians come into the game in good form; beating SCR Altach 4-0 at the weekend while Munich were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Bayer Leverkusen.

Champions League: Bayern vs Salzburg isn’t a foregone conclusion but at a price of 1.06 to advance, anything other than a safe passage through to the quarter finals would represent a major shock for the Germans.

Talking Points

Bayern seeking perfection

A home game against Bayer Leverkusen was a good workout for the Champions League but the Bavarians didn’t have it all their own way. Niklas Sule gave Bayern an early lead but Leverkusen equalised through an unusual source as Munich striker Thomas Muller slid the ball past his own keeper when he was trying to clear a dangerous ball from Kerim Demirbay. But Bayern are still well in command in the race for the league title, nine points ahead of Borussia Dortmund who have a game in hand.

The champions have been relentless in their pursuit of perfection in recent seasons and have come pretty close at times, but there have been signs recently that they are falling short. Nagelsmann’s team were off the pace in the first leg against Salzburg and were trailing until late in the game when Kingsley Coman equalised after Chukwubuike Aadma had given Salzburg a first half lead. But the 90^th minute leveller gave Bayern that crucial away goal and swung the tie in their favour. The Bundesliga champions won all their group games and are in the knockout phase for the 18^th time.

Key man Robert Lewandowski is the favourite, at odds of 1.72, to win the Champions League Golden Boot. The lethal Pole has nine goals already in the competition and he is likely to start alongside Muller up front, with Leroy Sane sitting in behind. With five goals and four assists Sane is enjoying a superb competition and he is in his best form since his high profile transfer from Manchester City.      

Red Bull must be brave

The latest Bayern vs Salzburg betting odds price Salzburg at a huge 11.08 to win in Munich so how could the underdogs match or even beat their illustrious hosts? Well, Salzburg are unbeaten in ten games and when they met Bayern in Austria the Bulls acquitted themselves well, very nearly taking advantage to Bavaria. They finished second in Group G, picking up ten points from a tough group containing Lille, Sevilla and Wolfsburg to open up the knockout phase for the Austrians for the first time. They have won the last eight Austrian Bundesligas in succession and so Salzburg are not used to losing and so will travel to Germany without fear.

The visitors will be without Swiss midfielder Noah Okafor who is struggling with a hamstring injury; and that’s a blow for Red Bull as he has scored three goals in the competition, top scoring alongside striker Karim Adeyemi who is likely to line up alongside Adamu.  

Bayern showed their fallibility in a shock 4-2 defeat to Bundesliga strugglers Bochum just three weeks ago. And Red Bull are 19 points clear at the top of the Austrian Bundesliga and with their domestic business all but wrapped up, they can throw everything they have at this chance for glory.

History

FC Bayern have had plenty of tussles with Salzburg’s sister club Red Bull Leipzig but they have met the Austrian side just five times, winning two, losing one and drawing two.

The 1-1 result in the first leg has given Salzburg some hope, but Bayern have won all five games they have played at home against Austrian teams, scoring 15 times, including a 3-1 win over Salzburg in the 2020-21 Champions League. Meanwhile Salzburg have lost nine of their last 15 away games in European competition.

While the Austrian league is not as strong as the German Bundesliga, Salzburg have the edge in terms of recent form, winning four and drawing two of the last six games while Bayern have won three drawn two and lost one.  

Betting Tip

I’ll be back on Tuesday evening with the Bayern vs Salzburg updates but in the meantime let’s take a look at the SBOTOP football odds and make a call.  A Draw at a price of 6.76 might be enough for the Austrians after their battling stalemate on home turf, and I can see this game being as tight as the first, most likely with a Bayern win but not by a big margin.

 

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