Champions League: Second Leg a Formality Before Real Action Begins

Newcastle United vs Qarabag

With Chelsea or Barcelona awaiting in the last 16 of the Champions League, please forgive me for not getting too excited about events on Tyneside this week.

In fact, just before this SBOTOP author gets off his soapbox, let me make it clear that the fact these sides are even meeting in a play-off adds weight to my opposition to the new format of the tournament, introduced last term.

For as Newcastle prepare to host the minnows of Qarabag, the tie has long been over.

That’s not unprecedented as many teams have racked up unassailable first leg leads in history and will continue to do so.

But the fact the side from Azerbaijan is participating in the knockout stages of the competition demonstrates the farce of allowing 24 sides to qualify.

Qarabag’s entire squad has cost less to assemble than a number of individuals in Newcastle’s squad and is a complete mismatch – as shown by last week’s first leg when the Geordies romped to a 6-1 victory.

The beleaguered Azerbaijani champions simply could not live with the pace and potency of Newcastle’s attack and nor should they have been expected to in front of the watching world.

Never mind Champions League 2026 highlights: if this had been a boxing bout, the referee would have stepped in long before the end.

The gulf in class was staggering, yet UEFA deemed fit to pit these two sides together.

That is the reality ahead of this week’s second leg.

 

Talking Points

In all, it means this is a game in which Tynesiders’ boss Eddie Howe could play most of the players from his first leg substitute’s bench and still have plenty to spare. Perhaps that is exactly what he will do, given their place in the last 16 is now assured and they already have a busy schedule and key players missing.

This includes influential captain Bruno Guimaraes who is out for a while with a hamstring injury, joining the likes of Tino Livramento (thigh) and Fabian Schar (ankle) on the sidelines, along with the suspended defender Malick Thiaw.

As a result, Howe may hand starting berths to the likes of Harvey Barnes, Jolelinton, Jacob Murphy and Wiliam Osula, all of whom were on the bench during their 2-1 Premier League defeat at Manchester City on Saturday evening.

Another reason why I find it hard to take the competition too seriously in its early stages is because records are being broken which are not comparable.

For example, in the first leg Anthony Gordon netted four times to overtake legendary Newcastle figure Alan Shearer as the club’s all-time top scorer in the Champions League with 10 goals.

Now this is nothing against Gordon but it’s doubtful that Shearer ever faced opponents as lowly as Qarabag.

Don’t get me wrong, Qarabag have made history by reaching the knockout phase, becoming the first team from Azerbaijan to advance from the group stage/league phase of this competition. Yet the fact their league phase also ended with a 6-0 loss (to Liverpool) proves my point, even if coach Gurban Gurbanov was keen to focus on the positives of their record-breaking effort: “Looking back at our eight-game journey in the league phase, we overcame a lot of hurdles.”

Yes they did, but should a team which lost its last two European encounters by an aggregate score of 12-1 really be in the knockout stages of Europe’s top club competition?

 

History

Last week’s first leg was the very first meeting between the two sides.

As well as Gordon’s four goal haul, two of which came from the penalty spot, Newcastle’s other marksmen were Thiaw and Murphy.

The home side’s consolation arrived via Elvin Cafarguliyev.

 

Betting Tip

After reading all of this, you will not be surprised one bit to see our Champions League betting odds.

In fact, would you really be brave enough to back the visitors, either 1X2 @ 12.00 or Asian Handicap +2.25 @ 2.06?

Even a draw will earn you a tidy pay day @ 7.60.

The Toon can be backed 1X2 @ 1.12 and Asian Handicap -2.50 @ 2.04.

If the minnows can survive until the break – and I don’t think they can (even against a Newcastle team who may be going through the motions) – then Half Time Full Time Draw Home is worth a look @ 5.10.

While I do think the outcome is inevitable, I suspect there will be fewer goals on this occasion though and my ** tip is total goal 2-3 @ 2.58.

   

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