Turkey vs Wales
Turkey had a disappointing start to Euro 2020 as they fell 3-0 to Italy in the tournament opener. The talented Turks, who have been widely tipped to turn heads in this tournament, were overmatched against the Azzurri, although their overly defensive approach certainly did not help.
They must make some significant changes to their tactics ahead of their matchup against Wales, who picked up a point despite a less than impressive performance against Switzerland in their opening match.
The winner of this match will have the inside track on second place in Group A behind Italy. The Euro 2020 betting odds have Turkey priced as slight favourites as they play in nearby Azerbaijan, where they will enjoy a lot of support. But the Dragons remain quite dangerous and are quite capable of producing another positive result.
Talking Points
Timid Turkey need to change things up
The Turkey many were so excited to see in Euro 2020 did not turn up in their 3-0 defeat to Italy. The Turks were much too defensive in their approach; they sat incredibly deep, which put their defenders under a lot of pressure, and did not attempt a single shot in the entire first half.
They finally opened things up a bit in the second half by introducing substitute Cengiz Under. But they still couldn’t keep hold of possession and primarily relied on long balls up to lone striker Burak Yilmaz, who was kept quiet for most of the match. They ended with just three total shots – none on target – which was highly disappointing.
That loss to Italy has put more pressure on Turkey to win against Wales, so manager Şenol Güneş could be forced to change his preferred counter-attacking approach and take the game to their opponents. Turkey certainly have the talent – with the likes of Hakan Calhanoglu, Yusuf Yazici, and Yilmaz – to play that style.
And with Wales also more inclined to play that defensive, counterattacking style, Turkey will likely see much more of the ball against the Welsh. That should allow Calhanoglu and Yilmaz to produce more Euro 2020 highlights than they did against the Italians.
Wales have much room for improvement
Wales picked up a point after drawing their opening match with Switzerland 1-1. However, the Dragons did not look all too impressive in their overall performance.
They were significantly outshot, 18-9, and were a bit lucky the Swiss were not more clinical with their finishing. Although, goalkeeper Danny Ward – who got the start ahead of veteran Wayne Hennessey – deserves plaudits for making some crucial saves.
The Welsh also deserve credit for battling hard and getting an equaliser after going behind early in the second half. Kieffer Moore scored his sixth international goal with a terrific glancing header.
Wales manager Robert Page has had success playing Liverpool’s Harry Wilson as a false nine, but Moore offers a different option as a more conventional target man.
Moore has likely earned another start after scoring, but he will be up against a formidable Turkish central defensive partnership that could limit his effectiveness.
Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey disappointingly did not provide much magic against Switzerland, with Manchester United winger Daniel James looking like the most dangerous Welsh attacking midfielder.
The speedy James could once again be a key player for Wales, especially if Turkey decide to open up more and leave spaces for James to run into on the counterattack.
History
This will only be the seventh all-time meeting between Turkey and Wales. Wales hold a slight 3-2 edge in terms of wins, with one draw between them.
The two countries last met in 1997 for a World Cup qualifier, one which Turkish fans likely remember quite fondly. Turkey went up 2-0 within eight minutes, then surrendered three goals in a row. Wales then went up 4-3, but Turkey scored three times in the last half-hour to secure the wild 6-4 win.
Betting Tip
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Turkey vs Wales | 1X2 Draw @ 3.05 |
| June 17, 00:00 (GMT+8) |
SBOTOP odds have Turkey as slight 2.44 favourites to win, with Wales not far behind at 2.95. Meanwhile, a draw is similarly priced at 3.00.
This match is quite tricky to call. While the Turks will ostensibly have the talent advantage as well as overwhelming fan support in Baku, the Welsh are capable of picking them off on the counter if they decide to open up and chase the win.
My guess is that Turkey will continue to play a more conservative style and wait for the final group game to throw caution to the wind. As a result, this match between Turkey and Wales has a decent chance of ending up as a rather dull stalemate.
| A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR () BETS ARE WORTH: |
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 = €20 (Highly confident) |
 = €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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