Euro 2024: Spain vs France…is the Order about to change?

Spain vs France

How did that happen? We’re down to the last four at Euro 2024 and it only seems like yesterday that the hosts Germany were hammering Scotland 5-1 on the opening day.

Luis De La Fuente’s Spain have been the team to watch so far and they reached the semi-final by beating Germany 2-1 after extra time, while Didier Deschamps’ France edged out an in-form Portugal on penalties, after a goalless 120 minutes.

This is a fascinating tie; and it may not play out as we might have expected some time ago. Les Blues have been the best side in Europe over the past decade, playing slick and often swashbuckling football with an array of attacking talent. Meanwhile Spain have struggled to reach the heights of their Golden era of 2008 to 2012 and have played with a pragmatic style in a recent period of transition.

At this tournament, La Roja have scored 11 goals and conceded only two, while France have produced a staggering scarcity of Euro 2024 highlights, winning only two games from five in normal time. And Les Bleus are yet to score a goal in open play, with two own goals and a spot kick to scrape together three goals.

I’ve been expecting France to click, and winning a high pressure penalty shootout against Portugal may help them to do just that. But if they don’t, and La Roja continue their excellent form, we could easily see the French deposed and the Spaniards on the march when they meet at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.   

 

Talking Points

Spain have style and steel

Undoubtedly the most exciting team to watch at Euro 2024 La Roja have cast off the image of a stodgy side eking out results and, with the likes of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal terrorising defences, they could go all the way in spectacular style. But they still have the stomach for a fight as they showed in a quarter final battle to the death against the hosts in Stuttgart. In front of a raucous Germany crowd La Roja dug in to win it late thanks to a Mikel Merino goal deep into extra time, heading home a cross fro Dani Olmo.      

Fabian Ruiz has two goals in the tournament, as has Olmo who won the man-of-the match award after the win over Germany and, alongside the young flying wingers and senior striker Alvaro Morata they make up a brilliant attacking line-up.

Defensive midfielder Rodri provides the muscle and intelligence in the quarterback role, while Unai Simon is a superb last line of defence, a nimble shot stopper, good with his feet and in the air. De La Fuente will be without Real Madrid star Dani Carvajal though, after he picked up a late red card in a tempestuous match with 15 cards in total.    

 

Penalty success may just spark Les Bleus

Deschamps must be scratching his head as to why a team containing talents such as Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele simply can’t buy a goal in open play. But, with arguably the best defence in the competition protected by the evergreen N’Golo Kante, maybe France can carry on grinding the results out. Either way, winning their penalty shootout against a buoyant Portugal team will have done their confidence the world of good; and Les Bleus still have two games to show what they are really about.      

Prior to their quarter final success on Friday, France had not won a penalty shootout in a major tournament since they beat Italy on their way to their 1998 World Cup triumph. 26 years is a long time to carry that burden and all five of France’s players held their nerve to beat Selecao stopper Diogo Costa, a Round of 16 penalty hero as the Selecao beat Slovenia by the same cruel method. When Theo Hernandez fired home the fifth the relief was palpable and the French celebrations began.    

Mbappe has not yet had the tournament he hoped for. The France skipper broke his nose against Austria and was already off the pitch for the penalty shootout against Portugal; so maybe he has a point to prove against Spain, ahead of his debut in La Liga for Real Madrid.       

 

History

With seven wins to five Les Bleus have had the better of the head to heads with Spain, and they won the last meeting, a 2-1 victory in the final of the 2021 UEFA Nations League.   

But La Roja is in better recent form, with six wins on the bounce compared with France’s three wins and three draws.  

 

Betting Tip

Much has changed since the start of this tournament and the Euro 2024 betting odds

have taken a sharp shift towards Spain, thanks to their all action route to the semi-finals. Meanwhile France have yet to impress and, at SBOTOP odds of 2.86 they start this game as underdogs.

La Roja, at 2.45, will be full of confidence but Deschamps’ team has found a way of getting through, game by game and, having won a penalty shootout maybe the shackles will come off. The most likely score line in 90 minutes is a 1-1 draw, so we could be in for the long haul.  Either way it’s going to be a fascinating clash and the winner will most likely be the favourite in the final on the 14^th June.      

   

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