La Liga: Atletico Are Red-Hot Favourites for This Madrid Derby

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have a short journey to make across the city for a Sunday night derby away to Rayo Vallecano.

The 14,000-capacity Estadio de Vallecas will be packed for the visit of Los Rojiblancos who are the form team in La Liga right now, and this is another chance for the visitors to cement their Champions League place. Barcelona have the 2022/23 title in the grasp and the challenge for Atletico is to chase down their bigger city rivals, Real Madrid, who, incidentally, have just dumped the Blaugrana out of the Copa del Rey.

In contrast to Atleti’s fine form, Andoni Iraola’s hosts are on a winless run but, after a strong first half of the campaign, they are currently eighth and have a great chance of improving on last season’s 12^th-placed finish. But the momentum is clearly with the visitors and the pre-match La Liga 2023 betting oddsrate Los Rojiblancos as hot prospects to collect another three points.

Talking Points

Simeone’s strong hand

Atletico are within five points of Los Blancos, narrowing the gap by four over the last five games, and Atleti’s clash with Real Betis last week showed just how strong Simeone’s squad is. Once Antoine Griezmann’s contract was sorted out he has rolled back the years and is as good as he ever was in the red and white of Atleti. The France star has evolved from being the prolific scorer to the man who pulls the strings, sets the tempo and opens up defences at will.

Striker Alvaro Morata has benefited from Griezmann’s all-round excellence and the move of Joao Felix to Chelsea hasn’t made a ripple at the Wanda Metropolitano. When his team was struggling to break a strong Betis team down, Simeone brought on Angel Correa and the Argentine winger delivered La Liga 2023 highlights. With five minutes on the clock he went on a scintillating run, leaving a string of defenders behind him as he coolly fired low into the bottom corner. It was Correa’s sixth goal of the campaign and he may get a start on Sunday.

Take a look at the Atleti bench and, with names like Rodrigo de Paul, Saul Niguez and Axel Witsel to call on, Simeone is spoilt for choice and the January signing of wing-back Matt Doherty has added more quality and experience. And Atleti’s legendary defence is back to its best now that Stefan Savic has managed to stop getting red cards! Alongside Jose Gimenez, Savic makes up a powerful centre-back partnership behind the impressive Jan Oblak.

Los Rojiblancos are top three material that’s for sure; but can they catch Real Madrid?

Rayo’s Euro dream is fading

Sitting eighth in the league table and seven points behind the last guaranteed Europa place, there is a danger of Vallecano’s season fizzling out and time is running out for head coach Iraola to reignite their campaign. Los Franjirrojos aren’t easy to beat but they have found winning difficult of late, drawing five and losing two of the last seven, and against Girona, Athletic Club and Sevilla they have failed to win at home.

28-year-old winger Isi Palazon has been the most productive player with six goals and four assists, while in Raul de Tomas and the legendary Ramadel Falcao, Rayo have two experienced and proven goal scorers. But I wouldn’t back them breaking through Atleti’s rock-solid defence.

History

Atleti have won 17 of the 27 meetings, while Rayo Vallecano have won just four and there have been six draws in all competitions since 1994.

The two teams drew 1-1 when they met at the Wanda Metropolitano in October as Ramadel Falcao scored an injury-time penalty to cancel out Alvaro Morata’s opener.

But the head-to-head are backed up by recent form…and how!

Over the past six games Los Rojiblancos have won five and drawn one while Vallecano have drawn four and lost two and, in their winless run, they have faced five bottom-half teams and no one from the top six.

Betting Tip

Los Rojiblancos are odds on at a SBOTOP price of 1.86 and that’s good enough for me against Rayo, who can be backed at 3.40 and the draw at 3.35.

The most likely scoreline is a 0-1 win for Atleti, at odds of 5.03, but I suspect the result may be a little more comfortable unless both teams suddenly have a big change in form.

 

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