Ligue 1: Last Year’s Top Two Set for New Year Ding-Dong

RC Lens vs Paris Saint-Germain

A year ago, my colleague suggested Lens are closing in on PSG – I was not convinced but took his word for it.

By the end of the Ligue 1 season, he had proved his point as PSG reclaimed the title but only by a solitary point.

However, my doubts remained as to whether a serious challenge to the Parisiens could be maintained.

Judging by the league table ahead of this clash of last season’s top two, it appears the answer is an emphatic no.

Talking Points

That is far from being critical of Lens, incidentally.

There are few sides in Europe, let alone France, that can boost the incredible resources of the Parisiens, and that is likely to help them secure a third successive league crown and an eighth in the past decade.

In fact, on Sunday evening, the team from the capital will be looking for a 10^th win in 11 Ligue 1 matches, while they have also avoided defeat in each of their last 15 domestic away games, registering 11 wins and four draws – the longest ongoing unbeaten run in Europe’s top five leagues and one stretching back to February last year.

That perhaps isn’t a surprise given they have the likes of Gianluigi Donnarumma in goals, Milan Skriniar and Marquinhos in defence, and France captain Kylian Mbappe leading the line, supported by the likes of Randal Kolo Muani.

While Lens ruined PSG’s New Year festivities in 2023, few expect them to right now.

They lost their last league game of 2023, a 2-0 loss away at high-flying Nice, and are currently 14 points off the summit at the halfway stage. Last weekend, they lost to Monaco on penalties to bow out of the Coupe de France.

However, don’t rule them out producing Ligue 1 2024 highlights.

For before that the Nice reverse they had been in fine form, earning four wins in their previous five domestic fixtures (against Marseille, Clermont, Lyon, and Reims).

Furthermore, they are unbeaten over 90 minutes in their last 10 home matches, in all competitions.

In striker Florian Sotoca they also have a player who has been involved in 10 goals across all competitions this season. Much will rely on him and fellow playmaker David Costa with Wesley Said up front.

Unsurprisingly, the only Frenchman with a better record than Sotoca is Mbappe, who has bagged himself 25 goals and three assists so far this term.

Indeed, Paris’s no. 7, whose overall goal tally for the season includes 18 in 16 league games, could well become the quickest player to score 20 times in a single French top-flight season since Hassan Akesbi did so in 1962–1963, reaching the 20-goal mark by the 17th game of the campaign.

PSG destroyed sixth-tier club US Revel in the Coupe de France last Sunday with nine unanswered goals and an Mbappe hat-trick. He will again be the man to stop.

History

Lens have actually not lost at home to PSG since the autumn of 2014, a season in which they finished bottom of Ligue 1 and were relegated.

Last season, they won this encounter 3-1 with goals from Przemysław Frankowski, Loïs Openda, and Alexis Claude-Maurice with Hugo Ekitike replying for PSG.

The contest the season before finished 1-1 when it took a last minute Georginio Wijnaldum goal to earn the Parisians a point after

Seko Fofana had fired Lens in front.

They also beat them at home the season previous when Ignatius Ganago netted the only goal of the game.

Lens have not fared as well in Paris where they have not won since the 2005/06 season.

They were beaten 3-1 earlier this term when Marco Asensio and Mbappe (two) were on target before Morgan Guilavogui grabbed a stoppage time consolation.

It was the same scoreline last season when Mbappe, Vitinha, and Lionel Messi netted three times in nine first half minutes after Lens had been reduced to 10 men.

They gained a second half reply through a Frankowski penalty.

Overall, PSG have tasted success on 40 occasions with 22 Lens triumphs and 19 draws.

Betting Tip

If there is any domestic game when PSG are not favourites, I cannot remember seeing one over the past few years.

It is the same again here with the SBOTOP Ligue 1 2024 betting odds as they are priced 1X2 @ 1.92 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.21.

Lens, meanwhile, are on offer 1X2 @ 3.42 and Asian Handicap +0.50 @ 1.98.

The draw is available @ 3.48.

If you fancy a repeat of last season then Correct Score 3-1 will pay out @ 32.00, while goal options include Over 3.00 @ 2.08, Total Goal 0-1 @ 4.16, 2-3 @ 2.00, and 4-6 @ 2.77. I simply cannot see past a PSG victory and that is reflected in my betting tip above.

 

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