EFL Cup: Desperation and Desire Will Be on Show in North London

Arsenal vs Newcastle United

Probably more than any other established club, Newcastle United are desperate.

Desperate for a team to take pride in, desperate for a slither of success, desperate for some silverware – almost anything will do!

Put simply, they crave a major trophy.

Yes, they were Championship winners in 2018, but you have to go back to the 1969 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, considered the forerunner to the UEFA Cup, for the last time the North East men brought a pot home.

In terms of a major domestic title, it’s approaching 70 years since they were winners.

Considering Tyneside is a hotbed of football, that is deemed by many locals to be unacceptable. But are things about to change?

For two seasons after Eddie Howe led them to the brink of a first major competition win since 1955, Newcastle are two games from Wembley once again.

Standing in their way of EFL Cup 2025 highlights are a big boy from the other end of the country, North London giants Arsenal.

 

Talking Points

With no European football to occupy them, this season actually appears to be an ideal time for the Tynesiders to launch a challenge for, at least, a Premier League top four spot.

But while the money men would probably argue otherwise, I’d table a wager that Newcastle fans would prefer to be cavorting around the national stadium with a cup.

This is their chance.

For a start, the Geordies are in a rich vein of form, are currently enjoying their best spell of the campaign, and come into this on the back of a 2-1 win in North London (at Spurs).

In addition, as one fan observed last week, Joelinton, Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali are gelling, Lewis Hall is looking like a real international full-back and the sublime Alexander Isak is back to his best.

It’s hard to argue with that last point and the Swede, especially with Callum Wilson absent through injury, will be the man they look to end the drought that has engulfed Tyneside for generations.

Like Newcastle experienced themselves last term, Arsenal are finding out this season just how disruptive injuries to key players can be.

A massive blow for the Gunners is the loss of Bukayo Saka who recently underwent hamstring surgery and faces up to a minimum of two months out.

It is the latest setback for a squad which has seen its title bid hampered by key players spending time on the sidelines.

The absence of captain Martin Odegaard for two months was one such example. His recent return has brought fluidity and vision back, something which will be needed more than ever in the absence of Saka.

Based on earlier rounds in the competition, I expect Howe to field a what is largely considered to be his strongest starting XI, while his counterpart Mikel Arteta may well rest some key men with one eye on league (however, distant their title hopes) and Champions League endeavours just around the corner.

That to me, coupled with Newcastle’s desperation and desire, may just give them the advantage over two legs.

Certainly, this is a match which has delivered Premier League highlights and narratives for three decades so why should a two-legged League Cup semi-final be any different!

 

History 

What a rich history these two clubs have, dating back to their first ever meeting in 1893.

Traditionally, Arsenal have the edge with 85 wins to the Toon’s 70 and a further 39 draws. 

However, in recent years it has been one-sided as Arsenal have actually won 20 of their last 24 meetings. 

They lost out 1-0 in the North East in early November though, when Isak scored the only goal of the contest just 12 minutes in.

Newcastle have only scored in four of their past 12 meetings with the Gunners. 

In February, Arsenal ran out 4-1 winners in North London, courtesy of an own goal, Kai Havertz, Saka and Jakub Kiwior. 

Former Gunner Joe Willock netted the consolation for the visitors. 

 

Betting Tip 

The League Cup 2025 betting is far more one-sided than this SBOTOP observer expected it to be.

The Gunners are clear favourites in a variety of ways, including 1X2 @ 1.53 and Asian Handicap -1.00 @ 2.00.

Newcastle are well off the pace, both 1X2 @ 4.83 and Asian Handicap +1.00 @ 1.84.

Despite all of this, I think this first leg will end with honours even and my ** prediction is 1X2 Draw @ 3.76.

If you don’t agree with my sentiment, it’s worth considering total goals 0-1 @ 3.50, 2-3 @ 1.97, 4-6 @ 2.74 and over 3.00 goals @ 2.13.

A repeat of their meeting from last term at the Emirates Stadium is on offer @ 24.00 with Correct Score 4-1, while a second 1-0 Newcastle success in as many months will pay out @ 15.00.

   

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