Premier League: Silverware and Survival

Leeds United vs Manchester City

Manchester City head across the Pennines on Saturday to make the short trip to Leeds as Pep Guardiola’s Sky Blues take on the resurgent Whites.  

The bid to beat the drop is breathless, as my colleague said this week, and Leeds United are in a strong position to retain their Premier League status. But with the teams around them also starting to pick up points, Jesse Marsch’s men need to find another win or two to ensure their survival. This is not an ideal fixture against Guardiola’s title chasers, but with just five games remaining, every match counts.   

The Sky Blues are heavily odds-on to win this game at a price of 1.28, and they too are desperate for a win in the knowledge that second-placed Liverpool are hot on their heels.   

Talking Points

Leeds’ tough run-in

The Whites’ Premier League 2022 results have been impressive in recent weeks; they are unbeaten in five, a sequence which has lifted them five points clear of Everton in 18^th place. There is still work to do, though, and a 0-0 draw away to Crystal Palace on Monday was a good result for Leeds. With Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea coming up, it was a vital point.

The Whites’ final two games are against Brighton and Brentford, both ball-playing teams with their top-flight futures secured, currently in 11^th and 12^th and with the ability to play with freedom. Neither of those fixtures will be easy. But Leeds are nicely clear of Everton, who have an equally tough run-in, while Burnley in 17^th have hit a winning streak in recent weeks and have shown they are up for the fight.

Leeds are renowned for their attacking brand of football over the past two campaigns with flair players like Raphinha writing the headlines. But they can tough it out too, and the 0-0 draw with the Eagles was a second successive clean sheet.        

There is no doubt that Jesse Marsch has done a fine job in his first two months at the club, but if he can get a win in this game, at SBOTOP odds of 9.40, then surely his work for this season will be a success. 

Guardiola vs Marsch replay

Leeds’ opponents have met their head coach already this season when Marsch faced Manchester City as boss of RB Leipzig in the Champions League. On that occasion City won 6-3, taking the Red Bulls’ defence apart but struggling to cope with the attacking threat of Christopher Nkunku, who scored all three of Leipzig’s goals.

Marsch plays with a flat back four, marshalled by the excellent Liam Cooper and with Kalvin Phillips sitting just in front, but that brings a danger of being pulled from side to side by the Sky Blues’ multiple attacking options. With a front five led by Kevin de Bruyne, Guardiola’s team attacks in numbers with quick passing movements and a fluid formation.

City come into the game on the back of a 5-1 thrashing of Watford, where this style of play reaped dividends. They were unlucky to follow that up with a Champions League first leg 4-3 win over Real Madrid on Tuesday, when they would not have been flattered by another 6-3 scoreline. The Sky Blues went 2-0 up and should have been out of sight before Karim Benzema halved the deficit before the break. And every time City extended their lead to two, they just couldn’t shake Los Blancos off and Benzema made it 4-3 with a late penalty.

History

It may come as a surprise to some that Leeds have the edge in the head-to-head meetings, with six wins to Manchester City’s five and there have been five draws in all competitions since 1993. But the last time they met in mid-December, Leeds were on the end of a 7-0 drubbing as Kevin de Bruyne, with a brace, was one of six Manchester City scorers on the day.

Leeds have been in good form, with victories over Norwich City, Wolves and Watford in the last five games, but they haven’t met a top-seven side in their last six games and this will be a huge test for Marsch’s men.   

With an away record of 12 wins, three draws and a single defeat the Sky Blues are a good bet to take all three points on Saturday.

Betting Tip

The draw at 5.03 is tempting for a Leeds fan or a neutral who has faith in the Whites’ talented bunch. But no matter how good the opponent, if Manchester City are on their game then there is only one outcome.

The Sky Blues can’t afford to drop any points. If they do then the Premier League 2022 betting odds will swing towards Liverpool for the first time in this campaign. A 2-0 win to City is the most likely outcome at odds of 6.56 and for an alternative bet the visitors -1.50 is available at 1.87.

I’m going for a low-scoring game because Marsch is clearly looking for tight defensive displays to get his team over the line. 

 

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