The gap between the Premier League and the Championship has never been as obvious as it appears this season, and there’s a real chance of the three newly promoted teams making a rapid return, to be replaced by the three clubs which went down last year.
With 21 games gone, Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town occupy the relegation zone, while Leicester City, Southampton, and Leeds United (relegated last season) are all in the Championship top four.
The Foxes and Saints look in great shape to take the automatic promotion places, though Leeds and Ipswich Town are certainly in the hunt and pretty sure to make the play-offs.
So will it be a straight swap?
Well, the Premier League 2024 betting odds suggest it could well be, though each of the bottom three is showing fight and have been picking up points.
Luton have been the most impressive, and manager Rob Edwards has done a superb job lifting the performances of his trusted players, who surprised everyone last year when they reached the Championship play-offs. He’s also made two astute signings in Ross Barkley and Andros Townsend, who have bags of Premier League experience.
Burnley have shown glimpses of their exciting brand of football, but they have given goals away cheaply week after week by losing possession in their own half.
And they have suffered the rough end of some referee and VAR decisions, notably in a 1-1 draw with Luton last time out. Manager Vincent Kompany will keep to his ball-playing strategy and coach his players to cut out the mistakes.
Bottom club Sheffield United have turned to their old boss Chris Wilder to try to haul them out of the mire. He doesn’t have the quality of player that Kompany is coaching nor yet the fighting spirit and confidence of Edwards’ Luton players. But Wilder is a pugnacious character and he is not a man to shirk a fight.
Who can get sucked in?
Any team up to Bournemouth in 12th place still have some serious work to do. The Cherries are currently nine points clear of the drop zone, but there is usually one team which drops from mid table, like a stone, and Bournemouth probably need another 10 points to be safe.
The teams in the most danger are Brentford, in 14th, who have just ended a run of four defeats in a five-goal thriller against Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Forest, and Everton.
Roy Hodgson’s Palace are just five points clear of the relegation zone, and an injury to Michael Olise has slowed their progress.
Meanwhile, Forest, four points clear, and Everton, with just a single point cushion, have both been accused of breaching financial fair play rules and could easily cop a points deduction. That outcome would put either or both in serious peril.
So which, if any, of the bottom three can survive and how will they do it?
Luton Town
For any of the current bottom three to earn another campaign in the top-flight, they will need a pretty spectacular set of Premier League 2024 results, and my fear for the Hatters is that they have already exceeded expectations and further improvement will be difficult.
But with seven points from the last three games, they have some momentum, and Barkley has the attacking skills and game management experience to possibly see them through.
If Barkley stays fit and Luton avoid other injuries, they have a fighting chance.
Burnley
After storming the Championship in some style, the Clarets were tipped for a mid-table finish but it just hasn’t worked out.
The club spent heavily on exciting young talent such as Wilson Odobert, Zeki Amdouni, and James Trafford, and it has naturally taken time for them to settle.
Eight points from the last eight games suggest the young Clarets are finding their feet, but they now need to go big.
Star striker Lyle Foster was out for 10 weeks under specialist care for his mental health struggles, and his return has made a huge difference. If Burnley continue their improvement, they might just come close to 30+ points, and that will give them a chance.
The Clarets have a real star in Foster, and he will give them hope if the Burnley defence can cut out unnecessary errors.
Sheffield United
The Yorkshire side still have the some of players who were relegated in 2021 in their ranks, and of the bottom three, they have a lack of quality.
Wilder was a surprise choice in some ways, but he knows the club inside out, and there will be no lack of fight at Bramhall Lane.
The Blades need Burnley and Luton to have a nightmare and the Premier League to dock points off Nottingham Forest.
The second half of the Premier League season is sure to provide drama, high action, and no shortage of controversy in the title race and in the scrap at the bottom. And here at SBOTOP, we’ll be following both battles every step of the way.
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