Serie A: A Battle for the Ages – but Neither are Title Winners for Me

Napoli vs AC Milan

A fixture which has produced Serie A highlights for the ages.

Yes, these Serie A heavyweights may not be the teams they once were, but both have shown tangible glimpses of those halcyon days over the past 18 months.

For a start, Napoli are the reigning champions and Milan are the team they succeeded as Serie A top dogs.

They also both have genuine title aspirations this term which should make this compelling fare.

Talking Points

Now let me say for the record, I cannot see either of these teams win Serie A again this season.

Napoli may dispute that based on current form.

A goal from Giacomo Raspadori saw them defeat Union Berlin in Europe on Tuesday which kept them in control of their own destiny.

They have also scored an impressive 12 in their last four league games and victory in this encounter would be another sign of a team beginning to move in the right direction under the leadership of new boss Rudi Garcia.

He could, however, probably do without the seemingly strained relations between star striker Victor Osimhen and the club hierarchy being played out in public.

The latest dispute which has gone public has seen the Nigerian international  unimpressed by club president Aurelio De Laurentiis’ recent statements about contract renewal talks.

The Partenopei president, who is no stranger to controversy, recently hinted to the media that the striker had changed his mind after agreeing to the terms of a new contract with the club, saying: “If after a handshake, things change, that is disappointing”.

The striker does not accept the president’s claims, feeling that an agreement was never reached in the first place.

Either way, it is an unhelpful distraction to what is happening on the pitch, although even in the absence of Osimhen his teammates have stepped up of late, with four goals scored in the first two games of his injury-enforced absence.

Milan were also involved in Champions League action in midweek but they remain winless and are bottom of Group F, with two points from their opening three matches.

Granted, it is the toughest group of all, but the Rossoneri have it all to do if they are to progress to the knockout stages.

Whether it be in front of the goal, in the midfield trenches or defensively, one or multiple areas seem to let them down.

Milan have actually lost three and drawn two, scoring once and conceding nine, in five big games played so far this season, against Inter and Juventus in Serie A and the three Champions League fixtures.

This has led to questions about whether this club have the guile and pedigree to grab results in high-leverage situations against top sides.

For all the attacking reinforcements made this past summer, there is still the over-reliance on solo brilliance from Rafael Leão to carry Milan to victory.

The 24-year-old Portuguese winger, who penned a new five-year contract with the club back in June, has been in good form for the Rossoneri and remains their main threat

Yet I think Napoli may prove too strong.

AC Milan went down to Juventus at the San Siro last Sunday night, a game which saw them reduced to 10 men when the defender Malick Thiaw received a straight red card.

That means he will be suspended this weekend.

History

Historically, Milan have enjoyed 61 victories in their matches with 47 Napoli successes and 50 draws so it’s pretty close overall.

They met four times last season.

In the Champions League quarter-finals, Milan progressed 2-1 on aggregate following up a 1-1 draw in Naples – when Osimhen and Olivier Giroud traded goals – with a 1-0 win in the San Siro (Ismaël Bennacer the decisive marksman on that occasion).

Milan also romped to a 4-0 win in Naples last season when Leão (two), Brahim Díaz and Alexis Saelemaekers were the goal-getters.

In a way, that was too late for Milan as Napoli were already on the verge of the first Serie A title in 33 seasons and had won 2-1 at the San Siro when Matteo Politano (penalty) and Giovanni Simeone were on target as they put together a blistering winning run which simply blew their rivals away.

Giroud had replied for the then defending champions.

Napoli have not beaten Milan at home for five years.

On that occasion, in August 2018, Milan led 2-0 through Giacomo Bonaventura and Davide Calabria before a quick-fire double from Piotr Zieliński drew Napoli level and Dries Mertens grabbed a winner for the Partenopei with 10 minutes remaining.

Betting Tip

It’s Napoli all the way with the SBOTOP Serie A betting odds, both 1X2 @ 2.21 and Asian Handicap -0.50, also @ 2.21.

Milan are on offer 1X2 @ 3.00 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.96 and 0.00 @ 2.36.

The Draw @ 3.20 will appeal to some, but it does seem highly unlikely there will be a repeat of Milan’s 4-0 romp last term which is available @ 225.00 with Correct Score.

More likely could be a 1-1 re-run from the first leg of last season’s Champions League quarter-finals in Naples, priced @ 5.60.

When considering the goal options, amongst them total goal 0-1 @ 3.20, 2-3 @ 1.90. 4-6 @ 3.70 and over 2.75 @ 2.25, remember there’s only been one goal or less in this fixture once in the past 15 years.

I am edging towards Napoli.

 

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