Northern Ireland vs Italy
The task facing Northern Ireland on Monday has just got a whole lot harder.
As if a date with the European champions wasn’t difficult enough, what some thought may have been a dead rubber is now anything but.
For Italy will be stung.
This after Jorginho’s last-minute penalty miss on Friday night ensured the race to finish first in World Cup 2022 qualifying Group C goes down to the wire as the Azzurri and Switzerland played out a gripping draw.
And while Roberto Mancini’s side hold the edge going into the last round of games with a goal difference two better than the Swiss, it all means we are set for a straight shoot-out between the pair for top spot, with Italy at Northern Ireland and Switzerland at home against Bulgaria.
In fact, dare I say, with Northern Ireland hopeful of securing third place to end a disappointing qualifying campaign on a high, this could be full of World Cup qualifying highlights.
Talking Points
The prospect of finishing second in the group and a play-off spot may well evoke unpleasant memories for Italy, who missed out on the World Cup in 2018 when they were beaten over two legs by Sweden.
They are determined not to go down that route again mind and Mancini said after the 1-1 draw with the Swiss that he is ‘sure’ the Azzurri will qualify for Qatar 2022 and that Jorginho is ‘sorry’ after the penalty miss.
Oddly, a win in Northern Ireland may not be enough if Switzerland htrash Bulgaria. That means Italy must win and score as many goals as possible to keep the Swiss at a safe distance.
Northern Ireland are no mugs, even if the gulf in class between themselves and the leading lights in the group was starkly highlighted by their meeting with Switzerland only a month ago.
They will certainly always battle as shown when they edged past Lithuania on Thursday in what was a first win in seven qualifying games – deservedly so following a first-half display of inventive passing and incisive movement that saw them dominate possession and control the tempo of the game more than they have for some time.
It was also a night when boss Ian Baraclough handed teenager Dale Taylor a debut.
The 17 year-old from North Belfast came on as a second half substitute and became the 12th youngest player to feature for Northern Ireland since 1882 – acquitting himself well on his debut.
It may well be men against boys on Monday night too but, if the hosts can take the lead backed by a buoyant home crowd at Windsor Park, life cold get tricky for the Italians.
History
Northern Ireland have only defeated Italy once. That was in a qualifier for the 1958 World Cup when Jimmy McIlroy and Wilbur Cush scored the goals for a team which included the likes of the Blanchflower brothers (Jackie and Danny), future Northern Ireland manager Billy Bingham and Peter McParland.
Although they have met in a number of friendlies, it remains one of only five competitive clashes.
The most recent was in Parma in March when first half goals from Domenico Berardi and Ciro Immobile secured a 2-0 success.
They also met in qualifying for Euro 2012 – a tournament Italy went onto reach the final of – when a goalless draw in Belfast was followed by a 3-0 home win in Pescara, led by a double from Antonio Cassano.
Overall, there have been seven Italian triumphs, two draws and that solitary Northern Ireland win.
However, in three meetings in Northern Ireland, Italy are yet to taste victory.
Betting Tip
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Northern Ireland vs Italy | Italy First Half Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.02 |
| November 16, 03:45 (GMT+8) |
The SBOTOP World Cup qualifying betting odds back the Italians all ends up.
1X2 @ 1.26 or Asian Handicap -1.75 @ 2.05 contrasts with the home team who are available to tip 1X2 @ 8.50 and Asian Handicap +1.50 @ 2.11.
A draw is on offer @ 5.40 and a re-run of Italy’s 2-0 success from eight months ago will pay out @ 5.00 with Correct Score.
If their most recent meeting on Northern Irish soil is to be repeated, then a goalless draw will earn you a pay day of @ 12.00.
I do expect goals given Italy need to go for the jugular and so do the betting odds with over 2.75 goals paying out @ 1.95, total goal 2-3 @ 1.93 and 4-6 @ 2.90.
I cannot see past an Italy win from start to finish.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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|---|---|---|---|
| = €20 (Highly confident) |
 = €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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