So, why will England win the World Cup 2022?
Well, I can give you a few good reasons (although in truth, I can give you more why they won’t).
For a start, their recent track record in major tournaments is excellent.
They reached the semi-finals of the World Cup four years ago when they were narrowly beaten in extra-time by Croatia.
Fast forward to the delayed Euro 2020 last summer and they went all the way to the final, which could have gone either way before they were on the wrong side of a spot-kick lottery at the hands of Italy. The Italians have not even qualified for this World Cup incidentally.
Add to that the fact manager Gareth Southgate has the nucleus of the same squad that did so well in those tournaments – coupled with the fact England have been placed in a very attractive group – and there is every reason for optimism among those who follow Inglaterra.
I’m afraid though I cannot go any further, even though that is the brief of this article.
For even before their lousy 2022 form to date, which saw them relegated from their Nations League group, I felt Southgate and England had long since peaked.
Even four years ago, to my mind they only reached the last four of Russia 2018 with a favourable draw.
In fact, the only time they played high calibre opposition (Croatia and Belgium twice) they lost all three matches.
Fast forward to last summer and the European Championship, and England were a better team.
There was also a particular highlight as they finally did see off an established footballing nation when it mattered in the shape of 2014 World Champions Germany in the last 16.
Again though, fortune favoured them with both the draw – they didn’t meet another top ranked nation again until the final – and the fact all bar one of their games were on home soil.
Despite the delight for all of an English persuasion, they also benefited from an extremely fortunate penalty award to see off Denmark in the last four.
So, how do I see England faring in this World Cup?
Very well in the group stage which will see them pit their wits against Wales (ranked 19th in the world), the US (ranked 16th) and Iran (ranked 20th).
Southgate’s side will face Iran – whom they have never met at senior level – in their first match on November 21 before another World Cup meeting with the USA four days later; the sides drew 1-1 at the 2010 World Cup.
Their final match on November 29 will be against Wales.
That is where the good news story ends for me though and, in the heat of Qatar, I can see them coming unstuck before the final – possibly as early as the last 16 if they do not top the group – and potentially if a quarter final with world champions France awaits in the quarter-finals.
That is not to say the holders are streets ahead and momentum can certainly go a long way in the heart of tournament football.
England’s squad contains few surprises and some genuine talent. Eighteen of the 26 players in the England squad have played outside the Premier League in the Football League. Indeed, three have played non-league which, in the words of acclaimed journalist Henry Winter shows how vital the pyramid is as a pathway.
They will miss Reece James. The Chelsea defender sustained an injury against AC Milan in a Champions League tie last month and had remained optimistic of recovering in time but it was not meant to be.
It is also clear that another Chelsea man, Ben Chilwell’s, injury is very unfortunate for player, club and country.
One area of concern may be the lack of cover for left-back Luke Shaw at left wing-back, especially as Kieran Trippier is expected to start at right wing-back, although Trippier could potentially switch flanks.
We wait and see.
This will be the first World Cup hosted by an Arab or Muslim country, although the decision to award the tournament to Qatar in December 2010 has been heavily criticised since over human rights concerns.
Germany (2014) are the only European nation to have won a World Cup outside of South America or Asia and the heat in Qatar will be, I believe, a factor.
England will have their moments but I cannot escape the fact that Southgate has taken them as far as he can and that their efforts at Russia four years ago and at last year’s European Championship will be the peaks of his tenure.
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