Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
Can anyone actually beat Rafael Nadal on clay this year?
This is the question many must ask before going to their favourite sportsbook and bet. The man is simply unstoppable on clay that it seems unfair to even have him play on the tournament. Nadal has proven time and time again that playing against him on his home surface is practically impossible.
It will take a lot out of Dominic Thiem to even try and snatch a set against the Spaniard. The question we must ask is not whether Thiem can win against the King of Clay: it’s whether can steal a set from him at all.
Talking Points
Let’s get the most obvious thing out of the way: Rafael Nadal is outrageous to play against on clay. The man is so at home on this surface that he broke John McEnroe’s record for successive set wins on a single surface. The high praise he is getting from pundits is justified whenever his statistics and overall game sense on clay is mentioned.
Fans throughout the world bore witness to the sheer dominance King Rafa showed in his realm. The only men who were close to threatening his supremacy were Martin Klizan and Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Nadal made sure that his superb service game will not allow the game to be swayed away from him.
The odds continue to stack against Thiem as the Spaniard is a consistent performer in Madrid. Nadal has only missed two of the nine finals ever since the courts changed from hard to clay. Of course, Nadal will always want to play his best tennis in front of an adoring home crowd, so he should expect the Spaniard to continuously attack him time and time again.
Thiem is more than aware of Nadal’s good form and even admitted that facing Rafa at this point is a tough prospect. However, he has to remember that he was the last man to defeat Nadal on clay, and that little nugget could help him spark a run that will result in a stunning upset.
History
This can be considered a rematch of the 2017 Madrid Open final, one that Nadal won in straight sets. The 24-year-old Austrian is right in predicting that this match will be more lopsided than the one they played last year, and their match history supports his musing.
All of their meetings were exclusively on clay, so Thiem should be more than familiar with Rafa’s tactics and machinations. However, he has only bested the Spaniard on two occasions: a full-set win in Buenos Aires two years ago and a straight sweep during last year’s Rome Masters.
Thiem had a brilliant game during his Italian Open win over Nadal. While his over-aggression may have put a dent on his service game that time, his impeccable return games made sure that Nadal didn’t get the breaks he badly needed. His steady defence won him the game.
However, that match was only a blemish in what otherwise is a one-sided stomp. Nadal was the heavy favourite at Monte Carlo, and online bookies were also all over him winning against Thiem. The Austrian could not contain Nadal and became a notch in the 31-year-old’s incredible record.
What are the odds?
A lot of men have tried to topple Nadal’s reign of terror on the clay, but it doesn’t look like it’s stopping soon. Rafa’s fantastic tennis arguably shows its best on the clay. While Thiem is still coming into this match with the mentality to win, it’d be hard to imagine Nadal cracking under the pressure now out of all times.
Multiple gambling sites pick Nadal to win over Thiem and give him the better odds. As Nadal is the most likely to win, an Asian Handicap of -1.50 rewards punters with 1.24. Thiem will have his back against the wall and fight his way to gain a set. If he does steal a set from Nadal, punters will get a handsome 3.50 boost to their stakes.
The fate of this match will be up to Thiem. Rafa has always played at such a high level that he deserves to be called the King of Clay. Whether that statement will remain unblemished after this match is up to him. If he cannot find a weak link to his opponent’s game, he will be on an early flight to France.
Other notable match-ups
Alexander Zverev vs John Isner: The young German continues to make strides in the tournament, and he has his own small streak of straight-set wins to protect. John Isner will try to buck the trend.
Kevin Anderson vs Dusan Lajovic: Dusan Lajovic is on a wave of good form in the tournament, clawing through the qualifiers to defeat Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro. Kevin Anderson will have an interesting challenge in his hands.
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
