Mutua Madrid Open Women’s Singles: Simona Halep vs Karolina Pliskova
One can say that the Madrid Open is the appetizer before the clay-filled delight of Roland Garros hits us all. With that in mind, it will be important for every player still in the running of the Women’s Singles to push for the victory and get a better seeding.
This is especially important for Simona Halep. The Romanian star has not participated in a lot of clay-court tournaments this year, and she was quickly dispatched by Coco Vandeweghe in Stuttgart. Betting sites will still book her as the favourite to win the French Open, but her performance here will definitely influence the odds for her.
Talking Points
It seems that Halep found whatever it was that made her ineffective in Germany and cruise through her Madrid opponents. Ekaterina Makarova (6-1 6-0) and Elise Mertens (6-0 6-3) were rendered hopeless against Halep’s masterful display on the clay courts.
Kristyna Pliskova, Karolina’s twin sister, also struggled to keep up with Halep during the first set of their Round-of-16 match. However, she seems to have found an attacking point in the second set and kept up with the Rank 1 Women’s Singles player. It was Halep’s experience and dominance that secured the match in her favour.
This tournament is an important warm-up for Halep. She has reached the finals of the French Open twice, only to fall in full sets. She needs to establish her rhythm here and establish her winning stroke in time for the most important matches.
Meanwhile, Pliskova wasn’t favoured by online bookies to win the title. While she did get impressive odds, her route was nothing short of a challenge. She had to face heavy hitters throughout her run. While she did beat Elena Vesnina and Sloane Stephens in straight sets, she had to fight off a second-set collapse to beat Victoria Azarenka in the second round.
Azarenka exposed that she can be pounded on her receives, therefore affecting her serves. Unless Karolina sought counsel from her sister on how to beat Halep, she will likely have a difficult time handling the Romanian’s powerful counters.
History
These two ladies have crossed paths eight times in the tour, and the score between the two of them heavily favours Halep.
Six of the seven matches they have played were on hard-surface courts, and Pliskova only won one of those after struggling through full sets in Romania vs Czech Republic matches. The rest of the games were decided in straight sets by Halep. Their latest match was in Australia, which Halep won comfortably.
The only clay court game they played was during last year’s French Open. Pliskova took Halep to full sets with her powerful serves and aggressive winners. However, Halep managed to hang on and keep Pliskova at bay to win the game, 6-4 3-6 6-3.
What are the odds?
Many a sportsbook are absolutely looking at Halep to cruise through Pliskova and reach the semi-final. While it may be unfair to simply dismiss the Czech, multiple factors play into this decision.
First of all, their playing styles will cause more problems for Pliskova than Halep. Pliskova’s aggressive attacks can easily be neutered by Halep’s counterpunching approach to tennis. She also has the physique to at least keep up with some of Pliskova’s trickier shots.
While things will surely be difficult for Pliskova, she can come here with more confidence. After all, she is on an eight-game win streak. She also beat Coco Vandeweghe in Stuttgart, the same woman who demolished Halep in the quarter-finals.
I think Simona Halep will still win this latest notch in their already-long history, but Pliskova should be able to at least mount a decent resistance against Halep. I don’t think Pliskova will let her eight-game streak on clay end here. Given her current form during her match against Stephens, Pliskova +1.50 @ 1.64 is the best Asian handicap odds to take.
However, all would depend on whether Pliskova will be able to prevent Halep from playing her usual tennis. If she manages to force her opponent to make uncomfortable shots from the get-go, she has a chance at making that big upset.
Other notable match-ups
Maria Sharapova vs Kiki Bertens: Both of these women are playing top tennis and should provide some top-quality entertainment. Eyes are on Kiki Bertens after she dismantled Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets.
Darya Kasatkina vs Petra Kvitova: Darya Kasatkina will be in a bit of a pickle when she squares up against Petra Kvitova. She can only play so much after enduring straight-set wins against Azarenka, Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Gabriñe Muguruza.
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
